Contents 38I.38II.Approaches for reconstructing refugia: strengths, limitations and recent advances39III.46IV.47V.48VI.4949References49 Summary Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas‐fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine‐scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Parasite-host and insect-plant research have divergent traditions despite the fact that most phytophagous insects live parasitically on their host plants. In parasitology it is a traditional assumption that parasites are typically highly specialized; cospeciation between parasites and hosts is a frequently expressed default expectation. Insect-plant theory has been more concerned with host shifts than with cospeciation, and more with hierarchies among hosts than with extreme specialization. We suggest that the divergent assumptions in the respective fields have hidden a fundamental similarity with an important role for potential as well as actual hosts, and hence for host colonizations via ecological fitting. A common research program is proposed which better prepares us for the challenges from introduced species and global change.

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Aim  To investigate relative niche stability in species responses to various types of environmental pressure (biotic and abiotic) on geological time‐scales using the fossil record. Location  The case study focuses on Late Ordovician articulate brachiopods of the Cincinnati Arch in eastern North America. Methods  Species niches were modelled for a suite of fossil brachiopod species based on five environmental variables inferred from sedimentary parameters using GARP and Maxent. Niche stability was assessed by comparison of (1) the degree of overlap of species distribution models developed for a time‐slice and those generated by projecting niche models of the previous time‐slice onto environmental layers of a second time‐slice using GARP and Maxent, (2) Schoener’s D statistic, and (3) the similarity of the contribution of each environmental parameter within Maxent niche models between adjacent time‐slices. Results  Late Ordovician brachiopod species conserved their niches with high fidelity during intervals of gradual environmental change but responded to inter‐basinal species invasions through niche evolution. Both native and invasive species exhibited similar levels of niche evolution in the invasion and post‐invasion intervals. Niche evolution was related mostly to decreased variance within the former ecological niche parameters rather than to shifts to new ecospace. Main conclusions  Although the species examined exhibited morphological stasis during the study interval, high levels of niche conservatism were observed only during intervals of gradual environmental change. Rapid environmental change, notably inter‐basinal species invasions, resulted in high levels of niche evolution among the focal taxa. Both native and invasive species responded with similar levels of niche evolution during the invasion interval and subsequent environmental reorganization. The assumption of complete niche conservatism frequently employed in ecological niche modelling (ENM) analyses to forecast or hindcast species geographical distributions is more likely to be accurate for climate change studies than for invasive species analyses over geological time‐scales.

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The Late Devonian (Frasnian-Famennian) interval includes one of the most dramatic intervals of biotic turnover in the Phanerozoic. Statistical evaluation of diversity change reveals that the primary cause of biodiversity decline was reduced speciation during the crisis interval, not elevated extinction rates. Although various hypotheses have been proposed to explain extinction increase during the Late Devonian, potential causes for reduced speciation have previously been largely unaddressed. Recent analyses focusing on biogeographic and phylogenetic patterns of species in shallow marine ecosystems of Laurentia indicate that a dramatic increase in interbasinal species invasions, facilitated by transgressive pulses, fundamentally affected biodiversity by enabling range expansion of ecological generalists and eliminating vicariance, the primary pathway by which new species typically form. Modern species invasions may result in similar speciation loss, exacerbating the current biodiversity crisis.

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During the Late Devonian Biodiversity Crisis, the primary driver of biodiversity decline was the dramatic reduction in speciation rates, not elevated extinction rates; however, the causes of speciation decline have been previously unstudied. Speciation, the formation of new species from ancestral populations, occurs by two primary allopatric mechanisms: vicariance, where the ancestral population is passively divided into two large subpopulations that later diverge and form two daughter species, and dispersal, in which a small subset of the ancestral population actively migrates then diverges to form a new species. Studies of modern and fossil clades typically document speciation by vicariance in much higher frequencies than speciation by dispersal. To assess the mechanism behind Late Devonian speciation reduction, speciation rates were calculated within stratigraphically constrained species-level phylogenetic hypotheses for three representative clades and mode of speciation at cladogenetic events was assessed across four clades in three phyla: Arthropoda, Brachiopoda, and Mollusca. In all cases, Devonian taxa exhibited a congruent reduction in speciation rate between the Middle Devonian pre-crisis interval and the Late Devonian crisis interval. Furthermore, speciation via vicariance is almost entirely absent during the crisis interval; most episodes of speciation during this time were due to dispersal. The shutdown of speciation by vicariance during this interval was related to widespread interbasinal species invasions. The lack of Late Devonian vicariance is diametrically opposed to the pattern observed in other geologic intervals, which suggests the loss of vicariant speciation attributable to species invasions during the Late Devonian was a causal factor in the biodiversity crisis. Similarly, modern ecosystems, in which invasive species are rampant, may be expected to exhibit similar shutdown of speciation by vicariance as an outcome of the modern biodiversity crisis.