Krishnarajah. (2017) Metabolically healthy obese and incident cardiovascular disease events among 3.5 million men and women. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 70 (12). pp. 1429-1437. Permanent WRAP URL:http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/94321 Copyright and reuse:The Warwick Research Archive Portal (WRAP) makes this work by researchers of the University of Warwick available open access under the following conditions. Copyright © and all moral rights to the version of the paper presented here belong to the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners. To the extent reasonable and practicable the material made available in WRAP has been checked for eligibility before being made available.Copies of full items can be used for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge. Provided that the authors, title and full bibliographic details are credited, a hyperlink and/or URL is given for the original metadata page and the content is not changed in any way. A note on versions:The version presented here may differ from the published version or, version of record, if you wish to cite this item you are advised to consult the publisher's version. Please see the 'permanent WRAP url' above for details on accessing the published version and note that access may require a subscription. (1995 to 2015) in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) to assemble a cohort of 3.5 million individuals, 18 years or older and initially free from cardiovascular disease. We created body size phenotypes defined by BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight and obesity) and three metabolic abnormalities (diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia). The primary endpoints were the first record of one of 4 cardiovascular presentations [coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease, heart failure, and peripheral vascular disease (PVD)].Results: During a mean follow-up period of 5.4 years, obese individuals with 0 metabolic abnormalities had a higher risk of CHD (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.49, 95% CI 1.45, 1.54), cerebrovascular disease (1.07, 95% CI 1.04, 1.11) and heart failure (1.96, 95% CI 1.86, 2.06) compared to normal weight individuals with 0 metabolic abnormalities. Risk of CHD, cerebrovascular disease and heart failure in normal weight, overweight and obese individuals increased with increasing number of metabolic abnormalities. Conclusion: Metabolically healthy obese individuals had a higher risk of coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and heart failure than normal weight metabolically healthy individuals. Even individuals who are normal weight can have metabolic abnormalities, and have similar risks for cardiovascular disease events.

BackgroundAndrogen excess is a defining feature of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), which affects 10% of women and represents a lifelong metabolic disorder, with increased risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular events. Previous studies have suggested an increased risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in individuals with PCOS and implicated androgen excess as a potential driver.Methods and findingsWe carried out a retrospective longitudinal cohort study utilizing a large primary care database in the United Kingdom, evaluating NAFLD rates in 63,120 women with PCOS and 121,064 age-, body mass index (BMI)-, and location-matched control women registered from January 2000 to May 2016. In 2 independent cohorts, we also determined the rate of NAFLD in women with a measurement of serum testosterone (n = 71,061) and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG; n = 49,625). We used multivariate Cox models to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for NAFLD and found that women with PCOS had an increased rate of NAFLD (HR = 2.23, 95% CI 1.86–2.66, p < 0.001), also after adjusting for BMI or dysglycemia. Serum testosterone >3.0 nmol/L was associated with an increase in NAFLD (HR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.16–4.53, p = 0.017 for 3–3.49 nmol/L and HR = 2.40, 95% CI 1.24–4.66, p = 0.009 for >3.5 nmol/L). Mirroring this finding, SHBG <30 nmol/L was associated with increased NAFLD hazard (HR = 4.75, 95% CI 2.44–9.25, p < 0.001 for 20–29.99 nmol/L and HR = 4.98, 95% CI 2.45–10.11, p < 0.001 for <20 nmol/L). Limitations of this study include its retrospective nature, absence of detailed information on criteria used to diagnosis PCOS and NAFLD, and absence of data on laboratory assays used to measure serum androgens.ConclusionsWe found that women with PCOS have an increased rate of NAFLD. In addition to increased BMI and dysglycemia, androgen excess contributes to the development of NAFLD in women with PCOS. In women with PCOS-related androgen excess, systematic NAFLD screening should be considered.

In tropical and subtropical regions of eastern and South-eastern Asia, dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) outbreaks occur frequently. Previous studies indicate an association between meteorological variables and dengue incidence using time series analyses. The impacts of meteorological changes can affect dengue outbreak. However, difficulties in collecting detailed time series data in developing countries have led to common use of monthly data in most previous studies. In addition, time series analyses are often limited to one area because of the difficulty in collecting meteorological and dengue incidence data in multiple areas. To gain better understanding, we examined the effects of meteorological factors on dengue incidence in three geographically distinct areas (Ratnapura, Colombo, and Anuradhapura) of Sri Lanka by time series analysis of weekly data. The weekly average maximum temperature and total rainfall and the total number of dengue cases from 2005 to 2011 (7 years) were used as time series data in this study. Subsequently, time series analyses were performed on the basis of ordinary least squares regression analysis followed by the vector autoregressive model (VAR). In conclusion, weekly average maximum temperatures and the weekly total rainfall did not significantly affect dengue incidence in three geographically different areas of Sri Lanka. However, the weekly total rainfall slightly influenced dengue incidence in the cities of Colombo and Anuradhapura.

BackgroundThe plantation sector in Sri Lanka lags behind the rest of the country in terms of living conditions and health. In 1992, a sector-wide survey of children aged 3–12 years and women of reproductive age showed >90% prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth infections. Biannual mass de-worming targeting children aged 3–18 years started in 1994 and was continued until 2005. The present study was carried out to assess the status of infection four years after cessation of mass de-worming.Methods/FindingsA school-based cross-sectional survey was carried out. Faecal samples from approximately 20 children from each of 114 schools in five districts were examined using the modified Kato-Katz technique. Data regarding the school, the child's family and household sanitation were recorded after inspection of schools and households. Multivariate analysis was carried out using logistic regression, to identify risk factors for infection. Faecal samples were obtained from 1890 children. In 4/5 districts, >20% were infected with one or more helminth species. Overall combined prevalence was 29.0%; 11.6% had infections of moderate-heavy intensity. The commonest infection was Ascaris lumbricoides, present in all five districts, as was Trichuris trichiura. Hookworm was not detected in two districts. Multivariate analysis identified low altitude and maternal under-education as risk factors for all three infections. Poor household sanitation was identified as a risk factor for A. lumbricoides and hookworm, but not T. trichiura infections.Conclusions/SignificanceThe results indicate that regular mass de-worming of plantation sector children should be resumed along with more emphasis on better sanitation and health education. They show that even after 10 years of mass chemotherapy, prevalence can bounce back after cessation of preventive chemotherapy, if the initial force of transmission is strong and other long-term control measures are not concomitantly implemented.

Aims/Hypothesis The aim of this research was to explore the relationship between incident epilepsy and type 1 diabetes in British participants. Methods Using The Health Improvement Network database, we conducted a retrospective, open-cohort study. Patients who were newly diagnosed with type 1 diabetes mellitus at the age of ≤40 years were identified and followed-up from 1 January 1990 to 15 September 2015. These patients, identified as not suffering from epilepsy at the time of diagnosis, were randomly matched with up to four individuals without type 1 diabetes mellitus, based on age, sex and participating general practice. A Cox regression analysis was subsequently performed using Townsend deprivation index, cerebral palsy, head injury and learning disabilities as model covariates.Results The study population consisted of a total of 24,610 individuals (4922 with type 1 diabetes and 19,688 controls). These individuals were followed up for a mean of 5.4 years (approximately 132,000 person-years of follow up). Patients with type 1 diabetes were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with epilepsy during the observation period compared with controls (crude HR [95% CI]: 3.02 [1.95, 4.69]). The incidence rate was estimated to be 132 and 44 per 100,000 person-years in patients and controls, respectively. This finding persisted after adjusting for model covariates (adjusted HR [95% CI]: 3.01 [1.93, 4.68]) and was also robust to sensitivity analysis, excluding adult-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus. Conclusions/Interpretation Patients with type 1 diabetes are at approximately three-times greater risk of developing epilepsy compared with matched controls without type 1 diabetes. This should be considered when investigating seizure-related disorders in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

SummaryObjectivePrevious studies suggest that androgens have a sexually dimorphic impact on metabolic dysfunction. However, the sex‐specific link between circulating androgens and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has not been examined in a large scale, longitudinal cohort, a task we undertook in this study.DesignA retrospective cohort study in a UK primary care database.PatientsWe included men and women with available serum testosterone and sex hormone‐binding globulin (SHBG) results.MeasurementsWe categorized serum concentrations according to clinically relevant cut‐off points and calculated crude and adjusted T2DM Incidence Rate Ratios (IRRs and aIRRs).ResultsSerum testosterone concentrations were available in 70 541 men and 81 889 women; serum SHBG was available in 15 907 men and 42 034 women. In comparison to a reference cohort with serum testosterone ≥20 nmol/L, men with lower serum testosterone had a significantly increased risk of T2DM, with the highest risk in those with serum testosterone <7 nmol/L (aIRR 2.71, 95% CI 2.34‐3.14, P < 0.001). In women, the risk of T2DM started to increase significantly when serum testosterone concentrations exceeded 1.5 nmol/L, with the highest risk in women with serum testosterone ≥3.5 nmol/L (aIRR 1.98, 95% CI 1.55‐2.52, P < 0.001). These observations were verified in a continuous rather than categorized analysis. The risk of T2DM increased in men and women with serum SHBG <40 and <50 nmol/L, respectively.Conclusions/InterpretationIn this longitudinal study, we found sexually dimorphic associations between serum testosterone and risk of incident T2DM. Androgen deficiency and excess should be considered important risk factors for diabetes in men and women, respectively.

SummaryObjective: To investigate whether the risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) is increased in patients with prolactinoma.Design: Population-based, retrospective, open-cohort study using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database.Patients: A total of 2233 patients with prolactinoma and 10 355 matched controls (1:5 ratio) from UK General Practices contributing to THIN were included. Sex, age, body mass index and smoking status were used as matching parameters. The primary outcome was any incident CVD, defined by Read codes suggesting myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, stroke, transient ischaemic attack or heart failure. Sex-specific-adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) were calculated with Poisson regression, using clinically relevant parameters as model covariates. Sensitivity analyses were performed to check whether a change in the initial assumptions could have an impact on the findings.Results: During the 6-year observation period, the composite CVD outcome was recorded in 54 patients with prolactinoma and 180 "nonexposed" individuals. The incidence rate was 1.8 and 14.8 per 1000 person-years for the females and males with prolactinoma, respectively. The aIRRs for CVD were estimated at 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.61-1.61, P = .968)] in female patients and 1.94 (95% CI: 1.29-2.91, P = .001) in male patients. These findings remained robust in sensitivity analyses restricting to patients with documented record of dopamine agonist treatment and those with newly diagnosed prolactinoma. Conclusions:In contrast to females, men with prolactinoma have increased risk for incident CVD; the aetiology of this gender-specific finding remains to be elucidated. K E Y W O R D Scardiovascular disease, hyperprolactinaemia, pituitary adenoma, prolactinoma

OBJECTIVE Irregular menstrual cycles are associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is characterized by androgen excess and irregular menses; androgens are drivers of increased metabolic risk in women with PCOS. Combined oral contraceptive pills (COCPs) are used in PCOS both for cycle regulation and to reduce the biologically active androgen fraction. We examined COCP use and risk of dysglycemia (prediabetes and type 2 diabetes) in women with PCOS. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Using a large U.K. primary care database (The Health Improvement Network [THIN]; 3.7 million patients from 787 practices), we carried out a retrospective population-based cohort study to determine dysglycemia risk (64,051 women with PCOS and 123,545 matched control subjects), as well as a nested pharmacoepidemiological case-control study to investigate COCP use in relation to dysglycemia risk (2,407 women with PCOS with [case subjects] and without [control subjects] a diagnosis of dysglycemia during follow-up). Cox models were used to estimate the unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratio, and conditional logistic regression was used to obtain adjusted odds ratios (aORs). RESULTS The adjusted hazard ratio for dysglycemia in women with PCOS was 1.87 (95% CI 1.78–1.97, P &lt; 0.001; adjustment for age, social deprivation, BMI, ethnicity, and smoking), with increased rates of dysglycemia in all BMI subgroups. Women with PCOS and COCP use had a reduced dysglycemia risk (aOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.59–0.87). CONCLUSIONS In this study, limited by its retrospective nature and the use of routinely collected electronic general practice record data, which does not allow for exclusion of the impact of prescription-by-indication bias, women with PCOS exposed to COCPs had a reduced risk of dysglycemia across all BMI subgroups. Future prospective studies should be considered for further understanding of these observations and potential causality.