No abstract

Summary1. Population density is a critical ecological parameter informing effective wildlife management and conservation decisions. Density is often estimated by dividing capture-recapture (C-R) estimates of abundance (N) by size of the study area, but this relies on the assumption of geographic closure -a situation rarely achieved in studies of large carnivores. For geographically open populationsN is overestimated relative to the size of the study area because animals with only part of their home range on the study area are available for capture. This bias ('edge effect') is more severe when animals such as large carnivores range widely. To compensate for edge effect, a boundary strip around the trap array is commonly included when estimating the effective trap area (Â). Various methods for estimating the width of the boundary strip are proposed, butN ⁄ estimates of large carnivore density are generally mistrusted unless concurrent telemetry data are available to defineÂ. Remote sampling by cameras or hair snags may reduce study costs and duration, yet without telemetry data inflated density estimates remain problematic. 2. We evaluated recently developed spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models using data from a common large carnivore, the American black bear Ursus americanus, obtained by remote sampling of 11 geographically open populations. These models permit direct estimation of population density from C-R data without assuming geographic closure. We compared estimates derived using this approach to those derived using conventional approaches that estimate density asN ⁄Â. 3. Spatially explicit C-R estimates were 20-200% lower than densities estimated asN ⁄Â. AIC c supported individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities and home range sizes. Variable home range size could not be accounted for when estimating density asN ⁄Â. 4. Synthesis and applications. We conclude that the higher densities estimated asN ⁄ compared to estimates from SECR models are consistent with positive bias due to edge effects in the former. Inflated density estimates could lead to management decisions placing threatened or endangered large carnivores at greater risk. Such decisions could be avoided by estimating density by SECR when bias due to geographic closure violation cannot be minimized by study design.

Eastern North American wolves have long been recognized as morphologically distinct from both coyotes and gray wolves. This has led to questions regarding their origins and taxonomic status. Eastern wolves are mainly viewed as: (1) a smaller subspecies of gray wolf (Canis lupus lycaon), potentially the result of historical hybridization between gray wolves (C. lupus) and red wolves (C. rufus), (2) a hybrid, the result of gray wolf (C. lupus) and coyote (C. latrans) interbreeding, or (3) a distinct species, C. lycaon, closely related to the red wolf (C. rufus). Although debate persists, recent molecular studies suggest that the eastern wolf is not a gray wolf subspecies, nor the result of gray wolf/coyote hybridization. Eastern wolves were more likely a distinct species, C. lycaon, prior to the eastward spread of coyotes in the late 1800s. However, contemporary interbreeding exits between C. lycaon to both C. lupus and C. latrans over much of its present range complicating its present taxonomic characterization. While hybridization may be reducing the taxonomic distinctiveness of C. lycaon, it should not necessarily be viewed as negative influence. Hybridization may be enhancing the adaptive potential of eastern wolves, allowing them to more effectively exploit available resources in rapidly changing environments.

The correlation of landscape features with genetic discontinuities reveals barriers to dispersal that can contribute to understanding present and future spread of wildlife diseases. This knowledge can then be used for targeting control efforts. The impact of natural barriers on raccoon dispersal was assessed through genetic analysis of samples from two regions, Niagara (N = 666) and St. Lawrence (N = 802). These areas are transected by major rivers and are at the northern front of a raccoon rabies epizootic. Genetic clusters were identified in each region using Bayesian clustering algorithms. In the Niagara region, two clusters were identified corresponding to either side of the Niagara River. For the St. Lawrence region, spatially congruent clusters were not identified, despite the presence of the intervening St. Lawrence River. These genetic data are consistent with raccoon rabies incidence data where rabies has been detected across the St. Lawrence River in Ontario while no cases have been detected in Ontario across the Niagara River. This is despite expectations of rabies incidence in Niagara before the St. Lawrence based on the progression of rabies from New York. The results from the two regions suggest different permeabilities to raccoons between New York and Ontario that may be attributed to the rivers. However, other factors have also been explored that could contribute to this difference between these study sites including the shape of the landscape and resource distribution.

Wolverines (Gulo gulo) are found in low densities throughout their circumpolar distribution. They are also potentially susceptible to human-caused population fragmentation (development, recreation and fur harvesting). The combination of these factors has contributed to this species being listed as having either vulnerable or endangered status across much of its current range. The effects of inherently low densities and anthropogenic pressures on the genetic structure and variation of wolverine populations are, as yet, unknown. In this study, 461 individuals were typed at 12 microsatellite loci to investigate the population genetic structure of wolverines from north-western Alaska to eastern Manitoba. Levels of gene flow and population differentiation among the sampled regions were estimated via a genotype assignment test, pairwise F(ST), and two genetic distance measures. Our results suggest that wolverine populations from southernmost regions, in which anthropogenic factors are strongest, revealed more genetic structuring than did northern populations. Furthermore, these results suggest that reductions in this species' range may have led to population fragmentation in the extreme reaches of its southern distribution. The continued reduction of suitable habitat for this species may lead to more populations becoming isolated remnants of a larger distribution of northern wolverines, as documented in other North American carnivore species.

Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models are gaining popularity for estimating densities of mammalian carnivores. They use spatially explicit encounter histories of individual animals to estimate a detection probability function described by two parameters: magnitude (g 0 ), and spatial scale (r). Carnivores exhibit heterogeneous detection probabilities and home range sizes, and exist at low densities, so g 0 and r likely vary, but field surveys often yield inadequate data to detect and model the variation. We sampled American black bears (Ursus americanus) on 43 study areas in ON, Canada, 2006Canada, -2009. We detected 713 animals 1810 times; however, study area-specific samples were sometimes small (6-34 individuals detected 13-93 times). We compared AIC c values from SECR models fit to the complete data set to evaluate support for various forms of variation in g 0 and r, and to identify a parsimonious model for aggregating data among study areas to estimate detection parameters more precisely. Models that aggregated data within broad habitat classes and years were supported over those with study area-specific g 0 and r (DAIC c C 30), and precision was enhanced. Several other forms of variation in g 0 and r, including individual heterogeneity, were also supported and affected density estimates. If study design cannot eliminate detection heterogeneity, it should ensure that samples are sufficient to detect and model it. Where this is not feasible, combing sparse data across multiple surveys could allow for improved inference.

The current range of wolverines (Gulo gulo) within the lower 48 states includes small, remnant populations in Idaho, Washington, Wyoming and Montana. The size and trend of each of these populations and connectivity to adjacent populations in the contiguous United States and Canada are poorly understood. In this study, levels of genetic diversity and population genetic structure were examined in three states (Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana) and two Canadian provinces (Alberta and British Columbia) using both mitochondrial (mtDNA) and nuclear microsatellite DNA. Restricted levels of gene flow were detected among these populations with mitochondrial and nuclear DNA and our observations suggest a pattern of malemediated gene flow. Populations in the United States appear to be receiving migrants from Canada, however, substantial genetic differentiation suggests that gene flow may not be high enough to prevent genetic drift. Our analyses suggest that at least 400 breeding pairs or 1-2 effective migrants per generation would be needed to ensure genetic viability in the long-term for each of the populations in the United States. Significant matrilineal structuring and restricted female gene flow indicates that demographic viability will depend upon the movement of female wolverines into new territories. Results from this study provide guidelines for conservation and management and indicate the need for more ecological data.

Fishers (Martes pennanti) were extirpated from much of southern Ontario, Canada, prior to the 1950s. We hypothesised that the recent recolonization of this area originated from an expansion of the population in Algonquin Provincial Park, which historically served as a refuge for fishers. To test this hypothesis, we created a sampling lattice to encompass Algonquin and the surrounding area, and we collected contemporaneous DNA samples. We sampled fishers from each of 35 sites and genotyped them at 16 microsatellite loci. Using a Bayesian assignment approach, with no a priori geographic information, we inferred 5 discrete genetic populations and used genetic population assignment as a means to cluster sites together. We concluded that the Algonquin Park fisher population has not been a substantial source for recolonization and expansion, which has instead occurred from a number of remnant populations within Ontario, Quebec, and most recently from the Adirondacks in New York, USA. The genetic structure among sampling sites across the entire area revealed a pattern of isolation‐by‐distance (IBD). However, an examination of the distribution of genetic structure (FST/1‐ FST) at different distances showed higher rates of gene flow than predicted under a strict IBD model at small distances (40 km) within clusters and at larger distances up to 100 km among clusters. This pattern of genetic structure suggests increased migration and gene flow among expanding reproductive fronts.