The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest.biodiversity ͉ fitness ͉ global warming ͉ physiology ͉ tropical G lobal warming in this century may be the largest anthropogenic disturbance ever placed on natural systems (1, 2). Its impact on species is likely to vary geographically (2-4), but a mechanistic framework to predict its magnitude and global distribution has not yet been developed (5). One important determinant of biological responses to climate change will be the degree of warming itself, which will continue to be greater at high latitudes (6). Also relevant, however, is the physiological sensitivity of organisms to changes in the temperature of their environment (7,8). The thermal tolerance of many organisms has been shown to be proportional to the magnitude of temperature variation they experience (9-11), a characteristic of climate that also increases with latitude. Evaluating the impacts of rapidly changing climates on population fitness and survival thus requires linking geographic patterns of the magnitude of temperature change with the physiological sensitivity of organisms to that change (12).Ectotherms constitute the vast majority of terrestrial biodiversity (13) and are especially likely to be vulnerable to climate warming because their basic physiological functions such as locomotion, growth, and reproduction are strongly influenced by environmental temperature. The ability of ectotherms to perform such functions at different temperatures is described by a thermal performance curve (14), which rises gradually with temperature from a minimum critical temperature, CT min , to an optimum temperature, T opt , and then drops rapidly to a critical thermal maxi...

Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low.

No abstract

Nitrogen fixation is crucial for maintaining biological productivity in the oceans, because it replaces the biologically available nitrogen that is lost through denitrification. But, owing to its temporal and spatial variability, the global distribution of marine nitrogen fixation is difficult to determine from direct shipboard measurements. This uncertainty limits our understanding of the factors that influence nitrogen fixation, which may include iron, nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios, and physical conditions such as temperature. Here we determine nitrogen fixation rates in the world's oceans through their impact on nitrate and phosphate concentrations in surface waters, using an ocean circulation model. Our results indicate that nitrogen fixation rates are highest in the Pacific Ocean, where water column denitrification rates are high but the rate of atmospheric iron deposition is low. We conclude that oceanic nitrogen fixation is closely tied to the generation of nitrogen-deficient waters in denitrification zones, supporting the view that nitrogen fixation stabilizes the oceanic inventory of fixed nitrogen over time.

Warming of the oceans and consequent loss of dissolved oxygen (O2) will alter marine ecosystems, but a mechanistic framework to predict the impact of multiple stressors on viable habitat is lacking. Here, we integrate physiological, climatic, and biogeographic data to calibrate and then map a key metabolic index-the ratio of O2 supply to resting metabolic O2 demand-across geographic ranges of several marine ectotherms. These species differ in thermal and hypoxic tolerances, but their contemporary distributions are all bounded at the equatorward edge by a minimum metabolic index of ~2 to 5, indicative of a critical energetic requirement for organismal activity. The combined effects of warming and O2 loss this century are projected to reduce the upper ocean's metabolic index by ~20% globally and by ~50% in northern high-latitude regions, forcing poleward and vertical contraction of metabolically viable habitats and species ranges.

Insect pests substantially reduce yields of three staple grains-rice, maize, and wheat-but models assessing the agricultural impacts of global warming rarely consider crop losses to insects. We use established relationships between temperature and the population growth and metabolic rates of insects to estimate how and where climate warming will augment losses of rice, maize, and wheat to insects. Global yield losses of these grains are projected to increase by 10 to 25% per degree of global mean surface warming. Crop losses will be most acute in areas where warming increases both population growth and metabolic rates of insects. These conditions are centered primarily in temperate regions, where most grain is produced.

No abstract

N of oceanic nitrate is controlled primarily by the fraction of total denitrification that occurs in the water column. Therefore a deglacial peak in the ratio of water column-to-sediment denitrification, caused by either a strong feedback between water column denitrification and the N reservoir or by an increase in sediment denitrification due to sea level rise, can explain the observed deglacial 14 N maximum further requires that the combined negative feedbacks from N 2 fixation and denitrification are relatively strong, and N losses are relatively small. Our results suggest that the glacial oceanic N inventory was at most 30% greater than today's and probably less than 10% greater.