Most eukaryotic organisms are arthropods. Yet, their diversity in rich terrestrial ecosystems is still unknown. Here we produce tangible estimates of the total species richness of arthropods in a tropical rainforest. Using a comprehensive range of structured protocols, we sampled the phylogenetic breadth of arthropod taxa from the soil to the forest canopy in the San Lorenzo forest, Panama. We collected 6144 arthropod species from 0.48 hectare and extrapolated total species richness to larger areas on the basis of competing models. The whole 6000-hectare forest reserve most likely sustains 25,000 arthropod species. Notably, just 1 hectare of rainforest yields >60% of the arthropod biodiversity held in the wider landscape. Models based on plant diversity fitted the accumulated species richness of both herbivore and nonherbivore taxa exceptionally well. This lends credence to global estimates of arthropod biodiversity developed from plant models.M ost eukaryote species are terrestrial arthropods (1), and most terrestrial arthropods occur in tropical rainforests (2). However, considerably greater sampling effort is required in tropical arthropod surveys to yield realistic estimates of global species richness (3-7). A basic hindrance to estimating global biodiversity lies in a lack of empirical data that establish local biodiversity, which can be scaled up to achieve a global estimate.Although many studies reported species richness for selected groups of well-studied insect taxa, no satisfactory estimate of total arthropod species richness exists for a single tropical rainforest location to date.The unstructured collection and small-scale survey of tropical arthropods cannot yield convincing estimates of total species richness at a specific forest (7-9). Most studies either target few arthropod orders or trophic guilds, or use a limited array of sampling methods, or ignore the diverse upper canopy regions of tropical forests (10-15). Moreover, sampling protocols have rarely been structured in such a way that, with increased sampling, incomplete data on local diversity (7) can be extrapolated to estimate total species richness across multiple spatial scales (16). Where such structured estimates are made, it is invariably for insect herbivores on their host plants (5). However, species accumulation rates may differ markedly for nonherbivore guilds, which include more than half of all described arthropod species (1, 17). As the degree of host specificity (effective specialization) of other guilds can be much lower than that of insect herbivores, or may be driven by different factors (18,19), global estimates based on herbivores alone are questionable. Consequently, extensive cross-taxon surveys with structured protocols at reference sites may be the only effective approach toward estimating total arthropod species richness in tropical forests (3).To provide a comprehensive estimate of total arthropod species richness in a tropical rainforest, we established a collaboration involving 102 researchers with expertise encom...

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Current methods for measuring similarity among phytophagous insect communities fail to consider the phylogenetic relationship between host plants. We analysed this relation based on 3580 host observations of 1174 beetle species associated with 100 species of angiosperms in two different forest types in Panama. We quantified the significance of genetic distance as well as taxonomic rank among angiosperms in relation to species overlap in beetle assemblages. A logarithmic model describing the decrease in beetle species similarity between host-plant species of increasing phylogenetic distance explains 35% of the variation. Applied to taxonomic rank categories the results imply that except for the ancient branching of monocots from dicots, only adaptive radiations of plants on the family and genus level are important for host utilization among phytophagous beetles. These findings enable improvements in estimating host specificity and species richness through correction for phylogenetic relatedness between hosts and consideration of the host-specific fauna associated with monocots.

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Similarity measures are among the most intuitive and common measures for comparing two or more sites, or samples, with respect to their species overlap. A restriction of similarity measures is that they are limited to pairwise comparisons even in a multiple-site study. This work presents a multiple-site similarity measure that makes use of information on species shared by more than two sites and avoids the problem of covariance between pairwise similarities in a multiple-site study. Further, we show that our multiple-site similarity measure is related to b-diversity measures such as Whittaker's b-diversity. Similarity measures can also be used as descriptors of effective specialization of insects to host species by measuring similarity from host observations. Finally, we show that multiple-site similarity and host specificity are two sides of the same coin.

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Quantifying the spatio-temporal distribution of arthropods in tropical rainforests represents a first step towards scrutinizing the global distribution of biodiversity on Earth. To date most studies have focused on narrow taxonomic groups or lack a design that allows partitioning of the components of diversity. Here, we consider an exceptionally large dataset (113,952 individuals representing 5,858 species), obtained from the San Lorenzo forest in Panama, where the phylogenetic breadth of arthropod taxa was surveyed using 14 protocols targeting the soil, litter, understory, lower and upper canopy habitats, replicated across seasons in 2003 and 2004. This dataset is used to explore the relative influence of horizontal, vertical and seasonal drivers of arthropod distribution in this forest. We considered arthropod abundance, observed and estimated species richness, additive decomposition of species richness, multiplicative partitioning of species diversity, variation in species composition, species turnover and guild structure as components of diversity. At the scale of our study (2km of distance, 40m in height and 400 days), the effects related to the vertical and seasonal dimensions were most important. Most adult arthropods were collected from the soil/litter or the upper canopy and species richness was highest in the canopy. We compared the distribution of arthropods and trees within our study system. Effects related to the seasonal dimension were stronger for arthropods than for trees. We conclude that: (1) models of beta diversity developed for tropical trees are unlikely to be applicable to tropical arthropods; (2) it is imperative that estimates of global biodiversity derived from mass collecting of arthropods in tropical rainforests embrace the strong vertical and seasonal partitioning observed here; and (3) given the high species turnover observed between seasons, global climate change may have severe consequences for rainforest arthropods.

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns.