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The content of these European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Guidelines has been published for personal and educational use only. No commercial use is authorized. No part of the ESC Guidelines may be translated or reproduced in any form without written permission from the ESC. Permission can be obtained upon submission of a written request to Oxford University Press, the publisher of the European Heart Journal and the party authorized to handle such permissions on behalf of the ESC (journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org). Disclaimer. The ESC Guidelines represent the views of the ESC and were produced after careful consideration of the scientific and medical knowledge and the evidence available at the time of their publication. The ESC is not responsible in the event of any contradiction, discrepancy and/or ambiguity between the ESC Guidelines and any other official recommendations or guidelines issued by the relevant public health authorities, in particular in relation to good use of healthcare or therapeutic strategies. Health professionals are encouraged to take the ESC Guidelines fully into account when exercising their clinical judgment, as well as in the determination and the implementation of preventive, diagnostic or therapeutic medical strategies; however, the ESC Guidelines do not override, in any way whatsoever, the individual responsibility of health professionals to make appropriate and accurate decisions in consideration of each patient's health condition and in consultation with that patient and, where appropriate and/or necessary, the patient's caregiver. Nor do the ESC Guidelines exempt health professionals from taking into full and careful consideration the relevant official updated recommendations or guidelines issued by the competent public health authorities, in order to manage each patient's case in light of the scientifically accepted data pursuant to their respective ethical and professional obligations. It is also the health professional's responsibility to verify the applicable rules and regulations relating to drugs and medical devices at the time of prescription.

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In this prospective study in a European population, the prevalence and incidence of AF increased with age and were higher in men than in women. The high lifetime risk to develop AF was similar to North American epidemiological data.

Objectives To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS 2 (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age≥75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc (CHA 2 DS 2 -Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism. Design Registry based cohort study. Setting Nationwide data on patients admitted to hospital with atrial fibrillation. Population All patients with atrial fibrillation not treated with vitamin K antagonists in Denmark in the period 1997-2006. Main outcome measures Stroke and thromboembolism. Results Of 121 280 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, 73 538 (60.6%) fulfilled the study inclusion criteria. In patients at "low risk" (score=0), the rate of thromboembolism per 100 person years was 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.89) with CHADS 2 and 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc at one year's follow-up. In patients at "intermediate risk" (score=1), this rate was 4.75 (4.45 to 5.07) with CHADS 2 and 2.01 (1.70 to 2.36) with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc. The rate of thromboembolism depended on the individual risk factors composing the scores, and both schemes underestimated the risk associated with previous thromboembolic events. When patients were categorised into low, intermediate, and high risk groups, C statistics at 10 years' follow-up were 0.812 (0.796 to 0.827) with CHADS 2 and 0.888 (0.875 to 0.900) with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc. Conclusions The risk associated with a specific risk stratification score depended on the risk factors composing the score. CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc performed better than CHADS 2 in predicting patients at high risk, and those categorised as low risk by CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc were truly at low risk for thromboembolism.

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We estimate that from 2010 to 2060, the number of adults 55 years and over with AF in the European Union will more than double. As AF is associated with significant morbidities and mortality, this increasing number of individuals with AF may have major public health implications.

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