SummaryMetastasis, the dissemination and growth of neoplastic cells in an organ distinct from that in which they originated 12, is the most common cause of death in cancer patients. This is particularly true for pancreatic cancers, where most patients are diagnosed with metastatic disease and few show a sustained response to chemo- or radiation therapy 3. Whether the dismal prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer compared to patients with other types of cancer is a result of late diagnosis or early dissemination of disease to distant organs is not known. Here we rely on data generated by sequencing the genomes of seven pancreatic cancer metastases to evaluate the clonal relationships among primary and metastatic cancers. We find that clonal populations that give rise to distant metastases are represented within the primary carcinoma, but these clones are genetically evolved from the original parental, non-metastatic clone. Thus, genetic heterogeneity of metastases reflects that within the primary carcinoma. A quantitative analysis of the timing of the genetic evolution of pancreatic cancer was performed, indicating at least a decade between the occurrence of the initiating mutation and the birth of the parental, non-metastatic founder cell. At least five more years are required for the acquisition of metastatic ability and patients die an average of two years thereafter. These data provide novel insights into the genetic features underlying pancreatic cancer progression and define a broad time window of opportunity for early detection to prevent deaths from metastatic disease.

Colorectal tumors that are wild-type (WT) for KRAS are often sensitive to EGFR blockade, but almost always develop resistance within several months of initiating therapy1,2. The mechanisms underlying this acquired resistance to anti-EGFR antibodies are largely unknown. This situation stands in marked contrast to that of small molecule targeted agents, such as inhibitors of ABL, EGFR, BRAF, and MEK, in which mutations in the genes encoding the protein targets render the tumors resistant to the effects of the drugs3–6. The simplest hypothesis to account for the development of resistance to EGFR blockade are that rare cells with KRAS mutations pre-exist at low levels in tumors with ostensibly WT KRAS genes. Though this hypothesis would seem readily testable, there is no evidence in pre-clinical models to support it, nor is there data from patients. To test this hypothesis, we determined whether mutant KRAS DNA could be detected in the circulation of 28 patients receiving monotherapy with panitumumab, a therapeutic anti-EGFR antibody. We found that nine of 24 (38%) patients whose tumors were initially KRAS WT developed detectable mutations in KRAS in their sera, three of which developed multiple different KRAS mutations. The appearance of these mutations was very consistent, generally occurring between five to six months following treatment. Mathematical modeling indicated that the mutations were present in expanded subclones prior to the initiation of panitumumab. These results suggest that the emergence of KRAS mutations is a mediator of acquired resistance to EGFR blockade and that these mutations can be detected in a non-invasive manner. Moreover, they explain why solid tumors develop resistance to targeted therapies in a highly reproducible fashion.

SUMMARY Which genetic alterations drive tumorigenesis and how they evolve over the course of disease and therapy are central questions in cancer biology. We identify 44 recurrently mutated genes and 11 recurrent somatic copy number variations through whole-exome sequencing of 538 chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and matched germline DNA samples, 278 of which were collected in a prospective clinical trial. These include previously unrecognized cancer drivers (RPS15, IKZF3) and collectively identify RNA processing and export, MYC activity and MAPK signaling as central pathways involved in CLL. Clonality analysis of this large dataset further enabled reconstruction of temporal relationships between driver events. Direct comparison between matched pre-treatment and relapse samples from 59 patients demonstrated highly frequent clonal evolution. Thus, large sequencing datasets of clinically informative samples enable the discovery of novel cancer genes and the network of relationships between the driver events and their impact on disease relapse and clinical outcome.

Major efforts to sequence cancer genomes are now occurring throughout the world. Though the emerging data from these studies are illuminating, their reconciliation with epidemiologic and clinical observations poses a major challenge. In the current study, we provide a mathematical model that begins to address this challenge. We model tumors as a discrete time branching process that starts with a single driver mutation and proceeds as each new driver mutation leads to a slightly increased rate of clonal expansion. Using the model, we observe tremendous variation in the rate of tumor development-providing an understanding of the heterogeneity in tumor sizes and development times that have been observed by epidemiologists and clinicians. Furthermore, the model provides a simple formula for the number of driver mutations as a function of the total number of mutations in the tumor. Finally, when applied to recent experimental data, the model allows us to calculate the actual selective advantage provided by typical somatic mutations in human tumors in situ. This selective advantage is surprisingly small-0.004 AE 0.0004-and has major implications for experimental cancer research.genetics | mathematical biology

In solid tumors, targeted treatments can lead to dramatic regressions, but responses are often short-lived because resistant cancer cells arise. The major strategy proposed for overcoming resistance is combination therapy. We present a mathematical model describing the evolutionary dynamics of lesions in response to treatment. We first studied 20 melanoma patients receiving vemurafenib. We then applied our model to an independent set of pancreatic, colorectal, and melanoma cancer patients with metastatic disease. We find that dual therapy results in long-term disease control for most patients, if there are no single mutations that cause cross-resistance to both drugs; in patients with large disease burden, triple therapy is needed. We also find that simultaneous therapy with two drugs is much more effective than sequential therapy. Our results provide realistic expectations for the efficacy of new drug combinations and inform the design of trials for new cancer therapeutics.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00747.001

Most cancers in humans are large, measuring centimetres in diameter, and composed of many billions of cells1. An equivalent mass of normal cells would be highly heterogeneous as a result of the mutations that occur during each cell division. What is remarkable about cancers is that virtually every neoplastic cell within a large tumour often contains the same core set of genetic alterations, with heterogeneity confined to mutations that emerge late during tumour growth2–5. How such alterations expand within the spatially constrained three-dimensional architecture of a tumour, and come to dominate a large, pre-existing lesion, has been unclear. Here we describe a model for tumour evolution that shows how short-range dispersal and cell turnover can account for rapid cell mixing inside the tumour. We show that even a small selective advantage of a single cell within a large tumour allows the descendants of that cell to replace the precursor mass in a clinically relevant time frame. We also demonstrate that the same mechanisms can be responsible for the rapid onset of resistance to chemotherapy. Our model not only provides insights into spatial and temporal aspects of tumour growth, but also suggests that targeting short-range cellular migratory activity could have marked effects on tumour growth rates.

The extent of heterogeneity of driver gene mutations present in naturally occurring metastases is largely unknown, i.e. treatment-naïve metastatic disease. To address this issue, 60× whole genome sequencing of 26 metastases from 4 patients was carried out. We found that the identical driver gene mutations were present in every metastatic lesion of each patient studied. Passenger gene mutations not known or predicted to have functional consequences accounted for all intratumoral heterogeneity. Even with respect to these passenger gene mutations, the genetic similarity among the founding cells of metastases was markedly higher than that expected for any two cells randomly taken from a normal tissue. The uniformity of driver gene mutations among metastases in the same patient has critical, encouraging implications for the success of future targeted therapies in advanced stage disease.

Resistance to the Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor ibrutinib has been attributed solely to mutations in BTK and related pathway molecules. Using whole-exome and deep-targeted sequencing, we dissect evolution of ibrutinib resistance in serial samples from five chronic lymphocytic leukaemia patients. In two patients, we detect BTK-C481S mutation or multiple PLCG2 mutations. The other three patients exhibit an expansion of clones harbouring del(8p) with additional driver mutations (EP300, MLL2 and EIF2A), with one patient developing trans-differentiation into CD19-negative histiocytic sarcoma. Using droplet-microfluidic technology and growth kinetic analyses, we demonstrate the presence of ibrutinib-resistant subclones and estimate subclone size before treatment initiation. Haploinsufficiency of TRAIL-R, a consequence of del(8p), results in TRAIL insensitivity, which may contribute to ibrutinib resistance. These findings demonstrate that the ibrutinib therapy favours selection and expansion of rare subclones already present before ibrutinib treatment, and provide insight into the heterogeneity of genetic changes associated with ibrutinib resistance.