No abstract

Age-associated disease and disability are placing a growing burden on society. However, ageing does not affect people uniformly. Hence, markers of the underlying biological ageing process are needed to help identify people at increased risk of age-associated physical and cognitive impairments and ultimately, death. Here, we present such a biomarker, ‘brain-predicted age’, derived using structural neuroimaging. Brain-predicted age was calculated using machine-learning analysis, trained on neuroimaging data from a large healthy reference sample (N=2001), then tested in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (N=669), to determine relationships with age-associated functional measures and mortality. Having a brain-predicted age indicative of an older-appearing brain was associated with: weaker grip strength, poorer lung function, slower walking speed, lower fluid intelligence, higher allostatic load and increased mortality risk. Furthermore, while combining brain-predicted age with grey matter and cerebrospinal fluid volumes (themselves strong predictors) not did improve mortality risk prediction, the combination of brain-predicted age and DNA-methylation-predicted age did. This indicates that neuroimaging and epigenetics measures of ageing can provide complementary data regarding health outcomes. Our study introduces a clinically-relevant neuroimaging ageing biomarker and demonstrates that combining distinct measurements of biological ageing further helps to determine risk of age-related deterioration and death.

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a public health priority for the 21st century. Risk reduction currently revolves around lifestyle changes with much research trying to elucidate the biological underpinnings. We show that self-report of parental history of Alzheimer’s dementia for case ascertainment in a genome-wide association study of 314,278 participants from UK Biobank (27,696 maternal cases, 14,338 paternal cases) is a valid proxy for an AD genetic study. After meta-analysing with published consortium data (n = 74,046 with 25,580 cases across the discovery and replication analyses), three new AD-associated loci (P < 5 × 10−8) are identified. These contain genes relevant for AD and neurodegeneration: ADAM10, BCKDK/KAT8 and ACE. Novel gene-based loci include drug targets such as VKORC1 (warfarin dose). We report evidence that the association of SNPs in the TOMM40 gene with AD is potentially mediated by both gene expression and DNA methylation in the prefrontal cortex. However, it is likely that multiple variants are affecting the trait and gene methylation/expression. Our discovered loci may help to elucidate the biological mechanisms underlying AD and, as they contain genes that are drug targets for other diseases and disorders, warrant further exploration for potential precision medicine applications.

Background DNA methylation changes with age. Chronological age predictors built from DNA methylation are termed ‘epigenetic clocks’. The deviation of predicted age from the actual age (‘age acceleration residual’, AAR) has been reported to be associated with death. However, it is currently unclear how a better prediction of chronological age affects such association. Methods In this study, we build multiple predictors based on training DNA methylation samples selected from 13,661 samples (13,402 from blood and 259 from saliva). We use the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 (LBC1921) and 1936 (LBC1936) to examine whether the association between AAR (from these predictors) and death is affected by (1) improving prediction accuracy of an age predictor as its training sample size increases (from 335 to 12,710) and (2) additionally correcting for confounders (i.e., cellular compositions). In addition, we investigated the performance of our predictor in non-blood tissues. Results We found that in principle, a near-perfect age predictor could be developed when the training sample size is sufficiently large. The association between AAR and mortality attenuates as prediction accuracy increases. AAR from our best predictor (based on Elastic Net, https://github.com/qzhang314/DNAm-based-age-predictor ) exhibits no association with mortality in both LBC1921 (hazard ratio = 1.08, 95% CI 0.91–1.27) and LBC1936 (hazard ratio = 1.00, 95% CI 0.79–1.28). Predictors based on small sample size are prone to confounding by cellular compositions relative to those from large sample size. We observed comparable performance of our predictor in non-blood tissues with a multi-tissue-based predictor. Conclusions This study indicates that the epigenetic clock can be improved by increasing the training sample size and that its association with mortality attenuates with increased prediction of chronological age. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13073-019-0667-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundGenome-wide DNA methylation (DNAm) profiling has allowed for the development of molecular predictors for a multitude of traits and diseases. Such predictors may be more accurate than the self-reported phenotypes and could have clinical applications.ResultsHere, penalized regression models are used to develop DNAm predictors for ten modifiable health and lifestyle factors in a cohort of 5087 individuals. Using an independent test cohort comprising 895 individuals, the proportion of phenotypic variance explained in each trait is examined for DNAm-based and genetic predictors. Receiver operator characteristic curves are generated to investigate the predictive performance of DNAm-based predictors, using dichotomized phenotypes. The relationship between DNAm scores and all-cause mortality (n = 212 events) is assessed via Cox proportional hazards models. DNAm predictors for smoking, alcohol, education, and waist-to-hip ratio are shown to predict mortality in multivariate models. The predictors show moderate discrimination of obesity, alcohol consumption, and HDL cholesterol. There is excellent discrimination of current smoking status, poorer discrimination of college-educated individuals and those with high total cholesterol, LDL with remnant cholesterol, and total:HDL cholesterol ratios.ConclusionsDNAm predictors correlate with lifestyle factors that are associated with health and mortality. They may supplement DNAm-based predictors of age to identify the lifestyle profiles of individuals and predict disease risk.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s13059-018-1514-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Genetic association studies have identified 44 common genome-wide significant risk loci for late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD). However, LOAD genetic architecture and prediction are unclear. Here we estimate the optimal P-threshold (Poptimal) of a genetic risk score (GRS) for prediction of LOAD in three independent datasets comprising 676 cases and 35,675 family history proxy cases. We show that the discriminative ability of GRS in LOAD prediction is maximised when selecting a small number of SNPs. Both simulation results and direct estimation indicate that the number of causal common SNPs for LOAD may be less than 100, suggesting LOAD is more oligogenic than polygenic. The best GRS explains approximately 75% of SNP-heritability, and individuals in the top decile of GRS have ten-fold increased odds when compared to those in the bottom decile. In addition, 14 variants are identified that contribute to both LOAD risk and age at onset of LOAD.

Linking epigenetic marks to clinical outcomes improves insight into molecular processes, disease prediction, and therapeutic target identification. Here, a statistical approach is presented to infer the epigenetic architecture of complex disease, determine the variation captured by epigenetic effects, and estimate phenotype-epigenetic probe associations jointly. Implicitly adjusting for probe correlations, data structure (cell-count or relatedness), and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker effects, improves association estimates and in 9,448 individuals, 75.7% (95% CI 71.70–79.3) of body mass index (BMI) variation and 45.6% (95% CI 37.3–51.9) of cigarette consumption variation was captured by whole blood methylation array data. Pathway-linked probes of blood cholesterol, lipid transport and sterol metabolism for BMI, and xenobiotic stimuli response for smoking, showed >1.5 times larger associations with >95% posterior inclusion probability. Prediction accuracy improved by 28.7% for BMI and 10.2% for smoking over a LASSO model, with age-, and tissue-specificity, implying associations are a phenotypic consequence rather than causal.

Although plasma proteins may serve as markers of neurological disease risk, the molecular mechanisms responsible for inter-individual variation in plasma protein levels are poorly understood. Therefore, we conduct genome- and epigenome-wide association studies on the levels of 92 neurological proteins to identify genetic and epigenetic loci associated with their plasma concentrations (n = 750 healthy older adults). We identify 41 independent genome-wide significant (P < 5.4 × 10 −10 ) loci for 33 proteins and 26 epigenome-wide significant (P < 3.9 × 10 −10 ) sites associated with the levels of 9 proteins. Using this information, we identify biological pathways in which putative neurological biomarkers are implicated (neurological, immunological and extracellular matrix metabolic pathways). We also observe causal relationships (by Mendelian randomisation analysis) between changes in gene expression (DRAXIN, MDGA1 and KYNU), or DNA methylation profiles (MATN3, MDGA1 and NEP), and altered plasma protein levels. Together, this may help inform causal relationships between biomarkers and neurological diseases.