Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post-glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small effects of many genes, and the resulting genotypic redundancy combined with high fecundity may facilitate rapid local adaptation despite high gene flow. Gene flow with preadapted alleles from warmer climates may promote adaptation and migration at the leading edge, while populations at the rear will likely face extirpation. Widespread species with large populations and high fecundity are likely to persist and adapt, but will likely suffer adaptational lag for a few generations. As all tree species will be suffering lags, interspecific competition may weaken, facilitating persistence under suboptimal conditions. Species with small populations, fragmented ranges, low fecundity, or suffering declines due to introduced insects or diseases should be candidates for facilitated migration.

Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able to track climate change. Results of 250 years of common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation of populations in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions of population origins. On the basis of the patterns of quantitative variation for 19 adaptation-related traits studied in 59 tree species (mostly temperate and boreal species from the Northern hemisphere), we found that genetic differentiation between populations and clinal variation along environmental gradients were very common (respectively, 90% and 78% of cases). Thus, responding to climate change will likely require that the quantitative traits of populations again match their environments. We examine what kind of information is needed for evaluating the potential to respond, and what information is already available. We review the genetic models related to selection responses, and what is known currently about the genetic basis of the traits. We address special problems to be found at the range margins, and highlight the need for more modeling to understand specific issues at southern and northern margins. We need new common garden experiments for less known species. For extensively studied species, new experiments are needed outside the current ranges. Improving genomic information will allow better prediction of responses. Competitive and other interactions within species and interactions between species deserve more consideration. Despite the long generation times, the strong background in quantitative genetics and growing genomic resources make forest trees useful species for climate change research. The greatest adaptive response is expected when populations are large, have high genetic variability, selection is strong, and there is ecological opportunity for establishment of better adapted genotypes.

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When confronted with an adaptive challenge, such as extreme temperature, closely related species frequently evolve similar phenotypes using the same genes. Although such repeated evolution is thought to be less likely in highly polygenic traits and distantly related species, this has not been tested at the genome scale. We performed a population genomic study of convergent local adaptation among two distantly related species, lodgepole pine and interior spruce. We identified a suite of 47 genes, enriched for duplicated genes, with variants associated with spatial variation in temperature or cold hardiness in both species, providing evidence of convergent local adaptation despite 140 million years of separate evolution. These results show that adaptation to climate can be genetically constrained, with certain key genes playing nonredundant roles.

Numerous studies of ecological genetics have found that alleles contributing to local adaptation sometimes cluster together, forming "genomic islands of divergence." Divergence hitchhiking theory posits that these clusters evolve by the preferential establishment of tightly linked locally adapted mutations, because such linkage reduces the rate that recombination breaks up locally favorable combinations of alleles. Here, I use calculations based on previously developed analytical models of divergence hitchhiking to show that very few clustered mutations should be expected in a single bout of adaptation, relative to the number of unlinked mutations, suggesting that divergence hitchhiking theory alone may often be insufficient to explain empirical observations. Using individual-based simulations that allow for the transposition of a single genetic locus from one position on a chromosome to another, I then show that tight clustering of the loci involved in local adaptation tends to evolve on biologically realistic time scales. These results suggest that genomic rearrangements may often be an important component of local adaptation and the evolution of genomic islands of divergence. More generally, these results suggest that genomic architecture and functional neighborhoods of genes may be actively shaped by natural selection in heterogeneous environments. Because small-scale changes in gene order are relatively common in some taxa, comparative genomic studies could be coupled with studies of adaptation to explore how commonly such rearrangements are involved in local adaptation.chromosomal rearrangement | genetic architecture | migration-selection balance | synteny

Population genetic models predict that alleles with small selection coefficients may be swamped by migration and will not contribute to local adaptation. But if most alleles contributing to standing variation are of small effect, how does local adaptation proceed? Here I review predictions of population and quantitative genetic models and use individual-based simulations to illustrate how the architecture of local adaptation depends on the genetic redundancy of the trait, the maintenance of standing genetic variation (V(G)), and the susceptibility of alleles to swamping. Even when population genetic models predict swamping for individual alleles, considerable local adaptation can evolve at the phenotypic level if there is sufficient V(G). However, in such cases the underlying architecture of divergence is transient: F(ST) is low across all loci, and no locus makes an important contribution for very long. Because this kind of local adaptation is mainly due to transient frequency changes and allelic covariances, these architectures will be difficult--if not impossible--to detect using current approaches to studying the genomic basis of adaptation. Even when alleles are large and resistant to swamping, architectures can be highly transient if genetic redundancy and mutation rates are high. These results suggest that drift can play a critical role in shaping the architecture of local adaptation, both through eroding V(G) and affecting the rate of turnover of polymorphisms with redundant phenotypic effects.

Genomic studies of speciation often report the presence of highly differentiated genomic regions interspersed within a milieu of weakly diverged loci. The formation of these speciation islands is generally attributed to reduced inter-population gene flow near loci under divergent selection, but few studies have critically evaluated this hypothesis. Here, we report on transcriptome scans among four recently diverged pairs of sunflower (Helianthus) species that vary in the geographical context of speciation. We find that genetic divergence is lower in sympatric and parapatric comparisons, consistent with a role for gene flow in eroding neutral differences. However, genomic islands of divergence are numerous and small in all comparisons, and contrary to expectations, island number and size are not significantly affected by levels of interspecific gene flow. Rather, island formation is strongly associated with reduced recombination rates. Overall, our results indicate that the functional architecture of genomes plays a larger role in shaping genomic divergence than does the geography of speciation.