The effect of geographic range on extinction risk during background and mass extinction

Payne, Jonathan L.; Finnegan, Seth

doi:10.1073/pnas.0701257104

Cited by 249 publications

(345 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…A negative dependence of extinction on taxon age, previously reported in marine, mainly benthic, genera (5), is here shown to also apply to marine zooplanktic species. This finding points to the importance of abiotic factors in driving extinction; old species and genera tend to be more widely distributed and represented by more local populations, rendering them less susceptible to environmentally driven extinction (38)(39)(40), although Finnegan et al (5) found that additional, unexplained, factors were involved for their data. Note that survivorship trajectories for short-lived taxa (taxon durations <0.2 My) are identical in the pK-Ordovician and K-Silurian (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…An alternative interpretation of these neutral excursions during the K-Silurian is that they could reflect simply a quantitative consequence of the overall intensification of extinction (38). If this were the case, then we would expect to see a significant positive association between extinction rate and β during the K-Silurian, but, in fact, this relationship is negligible (Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient: r s = 0.071; P = 0.10; see SI Text).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Greenhouse−icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton

Crampton

Cooper

Sadler

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Two distinct regimes of extinction dynamic are present in the major marine zooplankton group, the graptolites, during the Ordovician and Silurian periods (486−418 Ma). In conditions of "background" extinction, which dominated in the Ordovician, taxonomic evolutionary rates were relatively low and the probability of extinction was highest among newly evolved species ("background extinction mode"). A sharp change in extinction regime in the Late Ordovician marked the onset of repeated severe spikes in the extinction rate curve; evolutionary turnover increased greatly in the Silurian, and the extinction mode changed to include extinction that was independent of species age ("high-extinction mode"). This change coincides with a change in global climate, from greenhouse to icehouse conditions. During the most extreme episode of extinction, the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction, old species were selectively removed ("mass extinction mode"). Our analysis indicates that selective regimes in the Paleozoic ocean plankton switched rapidly (generally in <0.5 My) from one mode to another in response to environmental change, even when restoration of the full ecosystem was much slower (several million years). The patterns observed are not a simple consequence of geographic range effects or of taxonomic changes from Ordovician to Silurian. Our results suggest that the dominant primary controls on extinction throughout the lifespan of this clade were abiotic (environmental), probably mediated by the microphytoplankton.T he importance of the marine plankton in both the carbon cycle and in the food web that supports the diversity of marine life is undisputed. However, the evolutionary dynamics of planktic species and the factors controlling their diversity and evolutionary turnover are still poorly known (1, 2). This is particularly so for the Paleozoic, where problems of preservation and sampling bias, and poor time resolution, have precluded detailed analysis. How does the marine plankton respond to environmental perturbations arising from climate change over geological time? How does background extinction differ from episodic and mass extinction in the pelagic realm? Is the risk of plankton species extinction dependent on the amount of time since the species originated (3)? These questions have important implications for macroevolutionary process, stability of marine ecosystems, and modern biodiversity conservation (3-5). Here, using a new global data set of unparalleled temporal resolution, we attempt to answer these questions.The graptoloid clade (order Graptoloidea) constituted the main component of the early Paleozoic macrozooplankton from the beginning of the Ordovician to the Early Devonian (6). Graptoloids were colonial filter-feeding protochordates, generally ranging from a few millimeteres up to ∼200 mm in maximum dimension, which lived suspended in the water column in a range of depth zones. They have been used extensively for correlation and zonation (7-10), and the stratigraphic distributions of species are well docum...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Greenhouse−icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton

Crampton

Cooper

Sadler

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Geographic range is increasingly recognized as a primary determinant of extinction risk (10,11,14,(48)(49)(50)(51). In most studies, however, correlates of extinction risk are assessed by pooling taxa from different clades with markedly different evolutionary histories and biological characteristics.…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…I focus on the contributions of abundance, body size, and geographic range size to the observed stratigraphic range (termed duration hereafter) of species. Measures of geographic range and abundance are commonly used to set conservation priorities (8), and empirical support exists for the influence of both on extinction risk over geologic time scales (9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14). Body size is also widely believed to influence extinction risk, although support is equivocal (15)(16)(17)(18)(19).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Direct and indirect effects of biological factors on extinction risk in fossil bivalves

Harnik

2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

113

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Biological factors, such as abundance and body size, may contribute directly to extinction risk and indirectly through their influence on other biological characteristics, such as geographic range size. Paleontological data can be used to explicitly test many of these hypothesized relationships, and general patterns revealed through analysis of the fossil record can help refine predictive models of extinction risk developed for extant species. Here, I use structural equation modeling to tease apart the contributions of three canonical predictors of extinction-abundance, body size, and geographic range size-to the duration of bivalve species in the early Cenozoic marine fossil record of the eastern United States. I find that geographic range size has a strong direct effect on extinction risk and that an apparent direct effect of abundance can be explained entirely by its covariation with geographic range. The influence of geographic range on extinction risk is manifest across three ecologically disparate bivalve clades. Body size also has strong direct effects on extinction risk but operates in opposing directions in different clades, and thus, it seems to be decoupled from extinction risk in bivalves as a whole. Although abundance does not directly predict extinction risk, I reveal weak indirect effects of both abundance and body size through their positive influence on geographic range size. Multivariate models that account for the pervasive covariation between biological factors and extinction are necessary for assessing causality in evolutionary processes and making informed predictions in applied conservation efforts.A ll species eventually go extinct, and biological correlates of extinction risk have been the focus of many studies of extant and extinct taxa (1-4). Most studies have analyzed biological factors separately, tacitly assuming independence among them. However, few biological characteristics are independent, and unaccounted for covariation confounds causal interpretation, weakens the power of predictive models, and inhibits successful synthesis. In addition, most studies have considered only the direct effects of biological factors on extinction. However, factors can contribute both directly and indirectly through their influence on other more proximal biological characteristics, and thus, accounting for indirect effects can be important when assessing the relative influence of multiple factors (5-7).Here, I investigate the direct and indirect effects of multiple biological factors on extinction risk using the early Cenozoic marine fossil record of the eastern United States. I focus on the contributions of abundance, body size, and geographic range size to the observed stratigraphic range (termed duration hereafter) of species. Measures of geographic range and abundance are commonly used to set conservation priorities (8), and empirical support exists for the influence of both on extinction risk over geologic time scales (9-14). Body size is also widely believed to influence extinction risk, altho...

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“…1996; Gaston 1996). As rare species are prone to the effects of environmental stochasticity and face the potential of extinction (Lande 1993; Payne and Finnegan 2007), understanding the processes underlying range size evolution is of great interest to conservation and evolutionary biologists (Kruckeberg and Rabinowitz 1985). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological genetics of range size variation in Boechera spp. (Brassicaceae)

Lovell

McKay

2015

Ecology and Evolution

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Many taxonomic groups contain both rare and widespread species, which indicates that range size can evolve quickly. Many studies have compared molecular genetic diversity, plasticity, or phenotypic traits between rare and widespread species; however, a suite of genetic attributes that unites rare species remains elusive. Here, using two rare and two widespread Boechera (Brassicaceae) species, we conduct a simultaneous comparison of quantitative trait diversity, genetic diversity, and population structure among species with highly divergent range sizes. Consistent with previous studies, we do not find strong associations between range size and within‐population genetic diversity. In contrast, we find that both the degree of phenotypic plasticity and quantitative trait structure (Q ST) were positively correlated with range size. We also found higher F ST: Q ST ratios in rare species, indicative of either a greater response to stabilizing selection or a lack of additive genetic variation. While widespread species occupy more ecological and climactic space and have diverged at both traits and markers, rare species display constrained levels of population differentiation and phenotypic plasticity. Combined, our results provide evidence for a specialization–generalization trade‐off across three orders of magnitude of range size variation in the ecological model genus, Boechera.

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The effect of geographic range on extinction risk during background and mass extinction

Cited by 249 publications

References 44 publications

Greenhouse−icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton

Greenhouse−icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton

Direct and indirect effects of biological factors on extinction risk in fossil bivalves

Ecological genetics of range size variation in Boechera spp. (Brassicaceae)

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