High-resolution carbon isotope measurements of multiple stratigraphic sections in south China demonstrate that the pronounced carbon isotopic excursion at the Permian-Triassic boundary was not an isolated event but the first in a series of large fluctuations that continued throughout the Early Triassic before ending abruptly early in the Middle Triassic. The unusual behavior of the carbon cycle coincides with the delayed recovery from end-Permian extinction recorded by fossils, suggesting a direct relationship between Earth system function and biological rediversification in the aftermath of Earth's most devastating mass extinction.

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Wide geographic range is generally thought to buffer taxa against extinction, but the strength of this effect has not been investigated for the great majority of the fossil record. Although the majority of genus extinctions have occurred between major mass extinctions, little is known about extinction selectivity regimes during these ''background'' intervals. Consequently, the question of whether selectivity regimes differ between background and mass extinctions is largely unresolved. Using logistic regression, we evaluated the selectivity of genus survivorship with respect to geographic range by using a global database of fossil benthic marine invertebrates spanning the Cambrian through the Neogene periods, an interval of Ϸ500 My. Our results show that wide geographic range has been significantly and positively associated with survivorship for the great majority of Phanerozoic time. Moreover, the significant association between geographic range and survivorship remains after controlling for differences in species richness and abundance among genera. However, mass extinctions and several second-order extinction events exhibit less geographic range selectivity than predicted by range alone. Widespread environmental disturbance can explain the reduced association between geographic range and extinction risk by simultaneously affecting genera with similar ecological and physiological characteristics on global scales. Although factors other than geographic range have certainly affected extinction risk during many intervals, geographic range is likely the most consistently significant predictor of extinction risk in the marine fossil record.invertebrate ͉ Phanerozoic ͉ selectivity ͉ survivorship

Rapid climate change at the end of the Permian Period (~252 million years ago) is the hypothesized trigger for the largest mass extinction in Earth’s history. We present model simulations of the Permian/Triassic climate transition that reproduce the ocean warming and oxygen (O2) loss indicated by the geologic record. The effect of these changes on animal survival is evaluated using the Metabolic Index (Φ), a measure of scope for aerobic activity governed by organismal traits sampled in diverse modern species. Modeled loss of aerobic habitat predicts lower extinction intensity in the tropics, a pattern confirmed with a spatially explicit analysis of the marine fossil record. The combined physiological stresses of ocean warming and O2 loss can account for more than half the magnitude of the “Great Dying.”

Since the late Pleistocene, large-bodied mammals have been extirpated from much of Earth. Although all habitable continents once harbored giant mammals, the few remaining species are largely confined to Africa. This decline is coincident with the global expansion of hominins over the late Quaternary. Here, we quantify mammalian extinction selectivity, continental body size distributions, and taxonomic diversity over five time periods spanning the past 125,000 years and stretching approximately 200 years into the future. We demonstrate that size-selective extinction was already under way in the oldest interval and occurred on all continents, within all trophic modes, and across all time intervals. Moreover, the degree of selectivity was unprecedented in 65 million years of mammalian evolution. The distinctive selectivity signature implicates hominin activity as a primary driver of taxonomic losses and ecosystem homogenization. Because megafauna have a disproportionate influence on ecosystem structure and function, past and present body size downgrading is reshaping Earth's biosphere.

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous palaeontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyse a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present.

Delayed Earth system recovery following the end-Permian mass extinction is often attributed to severe ocean anoxia. However, the extent and duration of Early Triassic anoxia remains poorly constrained. Here we use paired records of uranium concentrations ([U]) and 238 U/ 235 U isotopic compositions (δ 238 U) of Upper Permian−Upper Triassic marine limestones from China and Turkey to quantify variations in global seafloor redox conditions. We observe abrupt decreases in [U] and δ 238 U across the end-Permian extinction horizon, from ∼3 ppm and −0.15‰ to ∼0.3 ppm and −0.77‰, followed by a gradual return to preextinction values over the subsequent 5 million years. These trends imply a factor of 100 increase in the extent of seafloor anoxia and suggest the presence of a shallow oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) that inhibited the recovery of benthic animal diversity and marine ecosystem function. We hypothesize that in the Early Triassic oceans-characterized by prolonged shallow anoxia that may have impinged onto continental shelvesglobal biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystem structure became more sensitive to variation in the position of the OMZ. Under this hypothesis, the Middle Triassic decline in bottom water anoxia, stabilization of biogeochemical cycles, and diversification of marine animals together reflect the development of a deeper and less extensive OMZ, which regulated Earth system recovery following the end-Permian catastrophe.paleoredox | uranium isotopes | biogeochemical cycling | carbon isotopes | Early TriassicT he end-Permian mass extinction-the most severe biotic crisis in the history of animal life-was followed by 5 million years of reduced biodiversity (1, 2), limited ecosystem complexity (3), and large perturbations in global biogeochemical cycling (4, 5). Ocean anoxia has long been invoked both as a cause of the extinction (6-8) and as a barrier to rediversification (9). Numerous lines of evidence demonstrate widespread anoxic conditions around the time of the end-Permian mass extinction (e.g., refs. 6 and 10-12). In contrast, the prevalence of anoxia during the 5-to 10-millionyear recovery interval remains poorly constrained (13,14).Reconstructing paleoredox conditions is challenging because some indicators of anoxia characterize only the local conditions of the overlying water column, whereas other indicators may be influenced by confounding factors, such as weathering rates on land. Here, we use paired measurements of [U] and δ 238 U in marine carbonate rocks to differentiate changes in weathering of U from variations in global marine redox conditions. Microbially mediated reduction of U(VI) to U(IV) under anoxic conditions at the sediment−water interface results in a substantial decrease in uranium solubility and a measureable change in 238 U/ 235 U (15-18). Because 238 U is preferentially reduced and immobilized relative to 235 U, the δ 238 U value of seawater U(VI) decreases as the areal extent of bottom water anoxia increases (Fig. S1). Consequently, a global increase in the extent of anoxi...