Temperature-dependent hypoxia explains biogeography and severity of end-Permian marine mass extinction

Penn, Justin L.; Deutsch, Curtis; Payne, Jonathan L.; Sperling, Erik A.

doi:10.1126/science.aat1327

Cited by 233 publications

(261 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…These model estimates agree with recent field studies on coral bleaching, which show lower probabilities of coral bleaching near the Equator than elsewhere (Sully et al ). In agreement with these models and recent field estimates, Penn et al () showed that in a simulated mass extinction event of the Permian‐Triassic boundary, with an increase in SST of 10°C, species near the Equator were more likely to persist than their counterparts at higher latitudes, mainly because equatorial species were already adapted to warmer conditions.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 70%

Reduced carbon emissions and fishing pressure are both necessary for equatorial coral reefs to keep up with rising seas

Cacciapaglia

Woesik

2020

Ecography

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A rapid increase in sea-level rise is generating vertical accommodation space on modern coral reefs. Yet increases in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are reducing the capacity of coral reefs to keep up with sea-level rise. We use ensemble species distribution models of four coral species (Porites rus, Porites lobata, Acropora hyacinthus and Acropora digitifera) to gauge potential geographic differences in gross carbonate production. Net carbonate production was estimated by considering erosional rates of ocean acidification, increasing cyclone intensity, local pollution, fishing pressure and the projected burdens of increases in SSTs (under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) through to the year 2100. Our models predict that only 4 ± 0.1% (~60 000 km 2 ) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs are projected to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100 under RCP 8.5 -most of which will be located near the Equator. However, with drastic reductions in emissions (under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 Wm −2 ), we predict that 15 ± 0.3% (~250 000 km 2 ) (under RCP 4.5 Wm −2 ) and 12 ± 0.7% (~200 000 km 2 ) (under RCP 6.0 Wm −2 ) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs, have the potential to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100. Yet the burdens of fishing pressure and its cascading effects are projected to be responsible for substantial reef erosion, nearly halving the number of reefs able to keep up with sea-level rise. If action is taken immediately and emissions are drastically reduced to RCPs 4.5 or 6.0 Wm −2 , and reef management reduces the burdens of local pollution and fishing pressure, then our model predicts that 21-27% (~350 000-470 000 km 2 ) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs -most of which will be located near the Equator -would have the potential to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 70%

Reduced carbon emissions and fishing pressure are both necessary for equatorial coral reefs to keep up with rising seas

Cacciapaglia

Woesik

2020

Ecography

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“…Ultimately, we compare these results back to the rock and fossil records and generate new hypotheses. Mo compilation from Scott et al (); Earth system model from Reinhard et al (); Halichondria panacea sponge photo from Mills et al (); ecophysiological model from Penn et al ()…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These model outputs can be compared to regional redox reconstructions from the rock record or the models can be forced with surface oxygen estimates. The model outputs can then be coupled with species extinction–origination models (Saupe et al, ) or with trait‐based ecophysiological models (Penn, Deutsch, Payne, & Sperling, ). Therefore, a case can be made that existing modeling frameworks do not present fundamental limitations on our ability to quantitatively explore the impact of environmental factors on early animal evolution.…”

Section: Point–counterpoint Argumentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the co‐evolution of surface oxygen levels and animals

et al. 2020

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Few topics in geobiology have been as extensively debated as the role of Earth's oxygenation in controlling when and why animals emerged and diversified. All currently described animals require oxygen for at least a portion of their life cycle. Therefore, the transition to an oxygenated planet was a prerequisite for the emergence of animals. Yet, our understanding of Earth's oxygenation and the environmental requirements of animal habitability and ecological success is currently limited; estimates for the timing of the appearance of environments sufficiently oxygenated to support ecologically stable populations of animals span a wide range, from billions of years to only a few million years before animals appear in the fossil record. In this light, the extent to which oxygen played an important role in controlling when animals appeared remains a topic of debate. When animals originated and when they diversified are separate questions, meaning either one or both of these phenomena could have been decoupled from oxygenation. Here, we present views from across this interpretive spectrum—in a point–counterpoint format—regarding crucial aspects of the potential links between animals and surface oxygen levels. We highlight areas where the standard discourse on this topic requires a change of course and note that several traditional arguments in this “life versus environment” debate are poorly founded. We also identify a clear need for basic research across a range of fields to disentangle the relationships between oxygen availability and emergence and diversification of animal life.

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“…The average probability (median) of belonging to a supermodule for nodes of the same layer was calculated according to (39). It shows the instability of the modular structure in the assembled network after the Earth's largest mass extinction event (6,24). This stage-level pattern explains the overall significance (P0.7 = 0.25) of the Mesozoic Evolutionary Fauna (Fig.…”

Section: Network Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A multiscale view of the Phanerozoic fossil record reveals the three major biotic transitions

Rojas

Kowalewski

Calatayud

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Sepkoski's hypothesis of Three Great Evolutionary Faunas that dominated Phanerozoic oceans represents a foundational concept of macroevolutionary research. However, 10 the hypothesis lacks spatial information and fails to recognize ecosystem changes in Mesozoic oceans. Using a multilayer network representation of fossil occurrences, we demonstrate that Phanerozoic oceans sequentially harbored four evolutionary faunas: Cambrian, Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and Cenozoic. These mega-assemblages all emerged at low latitudes and dispersed out of the tropics. The Paleozoic-Mesozoic transition was abrupt, coincident with the Permian 15 mass extinction, whereas the Mesozoic-Cenozoic transition was protracted, concurrent with gradual ecological shifts posited by the Mesozoic Marine Revolution. These findings support the notion that long-term ecological changes, historical contingencies, and major geological events all have played crucial roles in shaping the evolutionary history of marine animals. One Sentence Summary: 20Network analysis reveals that Phanerozoic oceans harbored four evolutionary faunas with variable tempo and underlying causes.

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Temperature-dependent hypoxia explains biogeography and severity of end-Permian marine mass extinction

Cited by 233 publications

References 64 publications

Reduced carbon emissions and fishing pressure are both necessary for equatorial coral reefs to keep up with rising seas

Reduced carbon emissions and fishing pressure are both necessary for equatorial coral reefs to keep up with rising seas

On the co‐evolution of surface oxygen levels and animals

A multiscale view of the Phanerozoic fossil record reveals the three major biotic transitions

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